ABSTRACT The genus Coffea belongs to the Rubiaceae family and includes two species with optimum economic performances, Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora. The state of São Paulo is one of the states that produce the species C. arabica in Brazil. Arabica coffee has been of great importance to São Paulo, providing relevant contributions to the historical, political, architectural, gastronomic, touristic, artistic, agricultural, industrial and social sectors since its introduction into the state in the nineteenth century. The agricultural sector includes crops produced by both small farmers and by highly technological agricultural groups. Coffea arabica plants present six phenological phases, all sensitive to changes in temperature and rainfall. In the reproductive phases, the species requires short days, low temperatures and no rainfall, followed by the rainy season. However, the phenological phases of the coffee plants can be harmed or even inhibited by dry or rainy seasons that are too long or too short. In the state of São Paulo, the municipalities of Garça and Franca show optimal coffee productivity, whereas those of Adamantina and Registro are low, and the agricultural aptitudes of these four municipalities show strong relationships with their geographical distributions in the state. Garça and Franca are situated in areas where the predominant dry and rainy seasons favor the occurrence of the phenological phases of arabica coffee plants, whereas Adamantina and Registro are located in areas with long dry and rainy seasons, respectively, characteristics that harm the development of the reproductive phenological phases of this culture.

RESUMO A demanda pelo azeite de oliva tem sido crescente no mundo, principalmente no Brasil,aumentando a necessidade de expansão da área de plantio. Contudo, nas regiões que são tradicionalmente produtoras, não existe mais espaço, havendo necessidade de procurar novas áreas para plantio no mundo. Neste trabalho, foram identificadas áreas marginais para plantio no Brasil, utilizando modelagem de nicho ecológico, baseando-se em pontos de ocorrência levantados nas regiões produtoras da Europa, Estados Unidos, Austrália e América Latina (Chile, Argentina e Uruguai). Foram usados 346 pontos georreferenciados de ocorrência e planos de informação com dados climáticos (média de temperatura mínima do ar, média de temperatura máxima do ar - em oC - e total de precipitação pluviométrica - em mm) estacionais (primavera, verão, outono e inverno) do mundo, baixados do site do Worldclim. Os dados foram organizados e formatados em sistemas de informações geográficas, usando ArcGIS 10. Finalmente, foram elaborados mapas com a probabilidade de ocorrência de oliveiras no mundo. Foi feito também um mapa apenas da América do Sul, em que são apresentadas as zonas com maior potencial de ocorrência de oliveiras.

ABSTRACT Demand for olive oil has been increasing worldwide, especially in Brazil, increasing the need for expansion of planting area. However, in regions that are traditional producers, there isn’t more space, we need to seek new areas for planting in the world. In this study, we identified marginal areas for farming in Brazil, using ecological niche modeling, based on occurrence points raised in the producing regions of Europe, United States, Australia and Latin America (Chile, Argentina and Uruguay). It was used 346 georreferenced occurrence points and climatic data layers (mean minimum air temperature, mean maximum air temperature - in oC - and total rainfall - in mm) seasonal (spring, summer, autumn and winter) of the world, downloaded from the site of Worldclim. The data were organized and formatted in geographic information systems (GIS), using ArcGIS 10. Finally, we made maps with probability of olive trees in the world. It was also made a map just of South America, with the most suitable areas for planting olive trees.